Intensifying Energy Warfare Brings Economic Pain To Russia And Ukraine

Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes Hit Third Russian Refinery This Month As Moscow Pounds Kyiv Infrastructure

Both Nations Face Severe Winter Energy Challenges From Systematic Infrastructure Destruction

KYIV — A fire erupted at a major Russian oil refinery nearly 900 miles from Ukraine’s borders on Saturday, the result of a Ukrainian long-range drone strike and the third attack on that facility in the past month, according to sources in Ukraine’s security services.

The strike on the Ufa refinery in Bashkortostan exemplifies an intensifying energy war between Ukraine and Russia that is bringing gasoline shortages to parts of Russia while threatening Ukraine with severe winter power deficits.

Video from the area showed a column of dark smoke rising from the plant following the attack. The refinery is one of Russia’s largest processing facilities.

UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKES: Extended Range Capabilities

The Saturday attack demonstrated Ukraine’s growing ability to strike targets well beyond what was previously possible.

Bashkortostan is located in the southern Ural Mountains, nearly 900 miles from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory — roughly equivalent to the distance from Washington, D.C. to Denver.

This was at least the fourth Ukrainian attack on Russian oil and gas facilities in the past week:

• A gas processing facility in the Volgograd region was struck Thursday
• A pumping station with an annual capacity of 50 million tons was damaged Thursday
• Multiple other refineries have been targeted in southern Russia

“We are destroying the aggressor country’s production of fuel and lubricants, explosives, and other components of the Russian military-industrial complex,” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a Telegram post Friday.

Ukraine struck Russia 70 times in September, according to Syrskyi.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s gasoline shortage is “up to around 20% of its needs.” Kyiv has begun using two domestically produced cruise missiles in recent strikes, he said, “and there are initial signs of success with this particular weapon.”

KYIV’S GROWING ARSENAL: Domestically-Produced Long-Range Systems

Ukraine’s ability to conduct strikes deep inside Russian territory stems from an expanding arsenal of locally-manufactured drones and missiles.

These systems have been developed primarily because Western allies have been reluctant to provide weapons systems capable of striking Russian territory, fearing potential escalation.

Ukrainian defense manufacturers have therefore accelerated domestic production of:

• Long-range reconnaissance and strike drones
• Cruise missile systems with ranges exceeding 500 miles
• Improved guidance systems for enhanced accuracy

The development and deployment of these systems has significantly expanded the geographic scope of the conflict, placing Russian military and industrial targets previously considered safe now within Ukrainian reach.

RUSSIAN COUNTER-ATTACKS: Massive Drone And Missile Barrages

Russia has responded to Ukrainian energy strikes with intensive attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure.

Recent Russian strikes left more than 240,000 homes in the southwestern Odesa region without power on Saturday, according to local officials. Ukraine’s energy ministry reported that more than 800,000 customers in Kyiv lost power temporarily.

The scale of recent Russian attacks has been substantial:

• October 5: Moscow launched more than 50 missiles and nearly 500 drones
• Friday: 465 drones and 32 missiles were launched, according to Ukrainian officials

Friday’s attack was “one of the largest concentrated strikes specifically against energy facilities,” according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

“Unfortunately, there is significant damage to the energy infrastructure,” Svyrydenko acknowledged.

The attacks represent Moscow’s ongoing campaign to damage Ukrainian energy production and distribution systems before winter, when electricity and heating demands peak.

UKRAINE’S WINTER CHALLENGE: Massive Gas Import Requirements

Ukrainian officials acknowledge that the nation’s gas production and related infrastructure face severe pressure from Russian attacks.

Ukraine is currently negotiating with international partners to increase natural gas imports by approximately 30% as winter approaches, according to Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk.

Domestic demand for gas in Ukraine typically spikes sharply beginning in November.

Ukraine had already arranged credits from European institutions totaling €800 million ($930 million), Grynchuk said, and officials are discussing expanding these loans.

Energy industry sources suggest Ukraine will require more than 4 billion cubic meters of additional gas by the end of winter, which at current market prices would cost approximately $2 billion — in addition to equipment and materials needed to repair facilities that are repeatedly targeted.

Most additional imports will come from Europe. The European Union reported last week that its storage facilities reached 83% capacity ahead of peak winter demand, with natural gas prices remaining relatively stable on European markets.

AIR DEFENSE CHALLENGES: Protecting Critical Infrastructure

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasized the need for additional air defense systems to protect critical energy infrastructure.

“There are 203 key facilities in Ukraine that we need to protect with air defense systems,” Zelenskyy said, while renewing his appeal for more Western systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he discussed the Russian attacks in a call with US President Donald Trump on Saturday as well as “opportunities to bolster our air defense.”

According to Syrskyi, Ukrainian air defenses are “about 74% effective,” but further efforts are needed to protect energy facilities.

That effectiveness rate, while relatively high, means that approximately one in four incoming missiles or drones reaches its intended target — often with devastating consequences for civilian infrastructure.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES: High Costs Of Energy Warfare

The mutual targeting of energy infrastructure extracts significant economic costs from both nations.

For Ukraine:

• Billions in emergency gas imports needed
• Extensive repair costs for repeatedly damaged facilities
• Lost economic productivity from power outages
• Increased dependence on European energy supplies
• Strain on government finances already stretched by war costs

For Russia:

• Gasoline shortages affecting civilian transportation
• Lost refinery production capacity
• Reduced export revenues from damaged facilities
• Increased costs to protect widely distributed energy infrastructure
• Economic disruption in regions experiencing fuel shortages

Neither country can sustain indefinite energy warfare without serious economic consequences.

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES: Why Both Sides Target Energy

Military analysts note that energy infrastructure attacks serve multiple strategic purposes for both sides.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries aim to:

• Reduce fuel supplies available for Russian military operations
• Create domestic pressure on Russian leadership through civilian shortages
• Demonstrate Ukrainian capability to strike deep inside Russian territory
• Reduce Russian export revenues that fund the war effort

Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure seek to:

• Degrade civilian morale during winter months
• Force Ukraine to divert resources to expensive energy imports
• Damage Ukraine’s economic capacity to sustain the war
• Pressure Ukrainian leadership toward negotiations

Both nations view energy warfare as potentially more decisive than battlefield victories in determining the conflict’s ultimate outcome.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE: Limited Options For Intervention

International observers have expressed concern about the escalating attacks on energy infrastructure, but options for intervention remain limited.

Western allies continue providing air defense systems to Ukraine, though not in quantities Ukrainian officials say are necessary.

Russia has ignored calls from international organizations to cease targeting civilian infrastructure, arguing that energy facilities supporting military operations constitute legitimate targets.

European nations are increasing their capacity to supply gas to Ukraine but face their own energy security concerns heading into winter.

OUTLOOK: Winter Will Test Both Systems

As temperatures drop across Eastern Europe, both Ukraine and Russia face critical challenges:

Ukraine must secure sufficient gas imports while protecting remaining energy infrastructure from continued Russian attacks. Even with European support, significant power outages and heating challenges appear likely.

Russia must restore refinery capacity while defending widely distributed facilities from increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian drones. Gasoline shortages may worsen before improving.

The energy war shows no signs of abating, with both sides apparently believing infrastructure attacks can achieve objectives that military operations have not.